Things don't seem to click in the early morning. I know they should click because I remember them clicking yesterday. The early morning mental fog needs some time to roll away... to drift off into the corners of my mind so I can get something done today. If it comes again tomorrow, so be it. Such is the way of things.
Anyhow, as my early morning mental fog is doing its early morning mental fog drifting, I usually get a cup of coffee or tea, sit bleary-eyed while reading through email, and then count the number of things in my todo list and divide by 10. I use that number to figure out early on whether I'm going to be measurably productive or whether it's just going to be one of those days where I spin my wheels a lot and don't really get anywhere.